CBN Special丨Decoding 2024 Government Work Report: GDP growth target & new quality productive forces

China seeks to achieve a GDP growth rate of around 5 percent for 2024, the latest signal that the world's second-largest economy is committed to high-quality development despite uncertainties at home and abroad.

The projected goal, which remains unchanged from the previous year's growth target, is one of the key development objectives unveiled in the government work report delivered by Premier Li Qiang to the national legislature, which began its annual session Tuesday.

But the premier acknowledged that matching that same growth target that the leadership had set a year earlier—when the country was buoyed by optimism after the lifting of three years of Covid-era restrictions—would be an uphill climb.

"Achieving this year's targets will not be easy, so we need to maintain policy focus, work harder, and mobilize the concerted efforts of all sides," Li said.

A pragmatic goal

In general, the growth target of around 5 percent is considered prudent, appropriate and pragmatically positive by public opinion.

To achieve the objectives of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and to double the GDP by 2035 compared to 2020, the compound annual growth rate must be at least 4.7 percent over the next 15 years. Setting a GDP growth target of "around 5 percent" allows for reasonable and moderate progress, sustained momentum, emphasis on quality, stabilization of expectations, and fortification of confidence, experts noted.

This growth target is 0.4 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points higher respectively than the previous expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for China's economic growth this year, showcasing the economic resilience and potential of the Chinese economy.

The significance of the 5 percent growth target holds a special meaning for the Chinese people too. China's economy is transitioning from a period of high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, entering a phase of high-quality development.

While the growth rate may not be as high as before, the optimization of structure, the transformation of driving forces, and the robust development of new quality productive forces provide limitless possibilities for the Chinese economy.

The nation's economy is set for a good start to the new year. China’s foreign trade expanded 8.7 percent year-on-year to 6.61 trillion yuan in the first two months of 2024, official data showed on Thursday.

China is confident that it can sustain the sound fundamentals of foreign trade, with exports climbing the value chain and the import market presenting greater opportunities amid the complex global economic environment and uncertainties, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said on Wednesday.

Positive signs have emerged as China's foreign trade sector maintained its growth momentum in the first two months of the year, Wang said at a news conference during the annual session of the country's top legislature. Many enterprises are venturing abroad to participate in trade shows and expand their market presence, he added.

Meanwhile, global fund managers have also shown their optimism in China's long-term economic growth.

Outflows from Chinese equities slowed into the end of February and regional active managers started adding growth and tech stocks. They come as China ramps up measures to boost confidence in its economy, with mainland stocks snapping a six-month streak of foreign outflows.

Northbound capital－overseas capital buying into the A-share market via the stock connect programs linking Shanghai and Shenzhen with Hong Kong－reported a net inflow of over 60.74 billion yuan in February.

The figure not only hit the highest monthly value in the past 13 months, but even more than for all of 2023.

Morgan Stanley recently reported that a shift away from Chinese equities by global long-term investors has taken a pause, with some funds getting less bearish. The China equity strategy team of Goldman Sachs Research Department also pointed out in a recent report that effective corporate governance reform may help the Chinese stock market attract foreign capital flow back.

The latest buzzword

At this year’s “Two Sessions”, the development of new quality productive forces has become the latest catchphrase.

In the government work report, there was a notable emphasis on accelerating the development of new quality productive forces as part of efforts to modernize China's industrial system. This strategy is seen as key to maintaining and enhancing China's quality growth, both now and in the future.

In September last year, new quality productive forces theory was initiated to promote China's high-quality development.

Marked by innovation, new quality productive forces are advanced productivity in essence. These forces represent a departure from traditional economic growth models, aligning with China's new development philosophy which prioritizes innovation and sustainability. They encompass high-tech, efficient, and high-quality productivity methods.

China, after years of rapid growth, is shifting toward an economy characterized by high-quality development and industrial upgrading.

By fostering new quality productive forces, China hopes to transform traditional industries, making them more advanced, intelligent, and environmentally friendly. This transition is vital for improving productivity, efficiency, and global competitiveness.

The impact of new quality productive forces on China's economic structure is already evident. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there has been significant year-on-year growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, solar cell production, and service robots. China's global standing in research and development investment and innovation indices further underscores the country's commitment to these new forces.

Looking to the future, these new forces are expected to drive growth in emerging sectors. The rapid adoption of technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain demonstrates this trend. The government plans to spearhead development in future industries such as quantum technology and life sciences, while establishing zones dedicated to these cutting-edge sectors.

New quality productive forces are poised to become a major driver of China's economy, playing a crucial role in China's vision of becoming a great modern socialist country.

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

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策划、编辑：李艳霞

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